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在深度不确定性下,基于强大的多标准决策方法的水库水质规划
Masoomeh Haghighat1, Mohammad Reza Nikoo2, Nasser Talebbeydokhti3
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran.
Journal of environmental management
|December 12, 2025
概括
气候变化给水资源管理带来了挑战. 这项研究整合了多标准决策 (MCDM) 和多目标可靠决策 (MORDM),以加强水库战略,提高水质和弹性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
背景情况:
- 气候变化给水资源管理带来了重大的不确定性.
- 制定强有力的战略对于确保水的安全和质量至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 检查强度指标对水资源管理解决方案选择的影响.
- 将多标准决策 (MCDM) 与多目标稳定决策 (MORDM) 整合起来,以加强水库管理策略.
- 在气候变化不确定性下改善水质和弹性.
主要方法:
- 使用LARS-WG区域气候变化模拟模型进行气象数据.
- 采用人工智能 (AI) 驱动的机器学习模型 (MLP,SVR,GRNN,ANFIS) 来进行流水模拟.
- 应用了CE-QUAL-W2水质模型和NSGA-III优化算法.
- 在MCDM框架内整合了稳健度指标 (遗憾,满意度).
- 评估了三种气候变化场景 (SSP5-8.5,SSP2-4.5,SSP1-2.6) 在2030-2034年期间.
主要成果:
- 展示了强度指标如何指导选择水库管理的最佳解决方案.
- 展示了集成的MCDM和MORDM在提高战略弹性方面的有效性.
- 确定了在不确定的条件下改善水质的具体取水策略.
结论:
- 整合MCDM和MORDM为水管理人员提供了一个结构化的方法.
- 灵活的战略对于应对气候变化影响和保护水库水质至关重要.
- 这项研究增强了气候适应性水资源管理的项目战略.
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