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人为的气候变化和人口老龄化情景将加剧中国与热浪相关的死亡负担
Jinjian Chen1, Maigeng Zhou2, Qihong Deng3
1School of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou 511436, China.
Environment international
|December 12, 2025
概括
中国未来的热浪死亡人数将因人类活动和人口老龄化而激增,尤其是在最坏的情况下. 迫切需要采取适应战略,以保护弱势群体.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 中国的热浪死亡率预测往往忽略了人类活动和人口老龄化.
- 中国的快速城市化和社会经济变化影响着热浪的影响.
- 从161个疾病监测点 (DSP) 收集了历史死亡数据.
研究的目的:
- 预测中国未来与热浪相关的死亡率.
- 评估自然与人为强迫的不同影响.
- 评估人口老龄化对死亡率趋势的作用.
主要方法:
- 使用了三阶段建模框架.
- 结合了来自四个共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 场景的预测温度数据.
- 根据自然和人为强迫情景计算未来的死亡人数.
主要成果:
- 在自然强迫 (SSP2-4.5-nat) 条件下,热浪频率和死亡率略有下降.
- 在"最坏情况"的人为情景下 (SSP5-8.5),死亡率急剧上升 (增加了20.2倍).
- 人类对死亡率的影响预计到2020年代将超过自然强迫的影响.
- 人口老龄化可能会使人为死亡率增加2.15至2.36倍.
- 老年人,女性,文盲和农村人口面临更高的风险.
结论:
- 人类活动和人口老龄化显著加剧了中国的热浪死亡率.
- 迫切需要量身定制的气候缓解和适应战略.
- 弱势群体需要具体的干预措施来应对日益增加的热浪风险.
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