评估Liquidambar orientalis在地中海东部地区使用整体物种分布模型的气候驱动的变化
Derya Evrim Koç1, Demet Biltekin2, Beyza Ustaoğlu3
1Department of Geography, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Sakarya University, Serdivan, Sakarya, 54100, Türkiye. dekoc@sakarya.edu.tr.
BMC plant biology
|December 12, 2025
概括
一棵受到威胁的地中海树,Liquidambar orientalis,显示了气候变化下的息地转移. 保护必须优先考虑避难区和遗传多样化的种群,以确保长期生存.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 古植物学是古植物学.
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 东地中海地区特有树木Liquidambar orientalis因分布有限和人类活动而面临威胁.
- 了解其息地动态对于有效的保护计划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了模拟Liquidambar orientalis的时空息地适合性变化,从最后的冰川最大值到未来的气候场景.
- 将古植物学数据与物种分布建模 (SDM) 整合起来,以获得生态弹性洞察力.
主要方法:
- 使用了一个集合物种分布建模 (SDM) 框架.
- 综合化石花粉记录与各种气候场景下的预测建模 (RCP 2.6,RCP 8.5).
- 分析了影响息地适宜性的关键气候变量,例如平均日间范围和最冷季度的降水量.
主要成果:
- 组合模型显示出高的预测准确性 (AUC=0.96,TSS=0.91).
- 化石记录证实,自中世纪早期以来,在西南安纳托利亚一直存在.
- 未来的预测表明,在RCP 2.6下,潜在的息地稳定/扩张,但在RCP 8.5下减少,在金牛座山区的避难所仍然存在关键.
结论:
- 这项研究是第一个将多时合集SDM和Liquidambar orientalis的化石记录结合在一起的研究,突出了其长期的生态灵活性.
- 保护战略应优先考虑遗传多样性种群和稳定的气候避难所.
- 综合性方法为评估其他地中海遗物物种的气候弹性提供了一个框架.
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