使用2023年2月卡拉曼马拉斯,土耳其序列在大地震中探索端到端的地震预警性能
Savvas Marcou1,2, Angela I Lux3, Andrei Akimov3
1Berkeley Seismological Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, 94703, Berkeley, CA, USA. savvas.marcou@berkeley.edu.
Scientific reports
|December 12, 2025
概括
地震预警系统 (EEWS) 可以在地震发生时提供长达20秒的预警时间,即使预警延迟. 这项研究使用2023年卡拉曼马拉斯地震序列的真实数据来证明EEWS的有效性.
科学领域:
- 地质物理学 地质物理学
- 地震学 地震学
- 地震工程的工程是地震工程.
背景情况:
- 地震预警系统 (EEWS) 对于减轻人口密地区的地震风险至关重要.
- 2023年土耳其卡拉曼马拉斯的地震序列为测试EEWS性能提供了独特的机会.
- 关于EEWS的有效性存在不确定性,特别是在城市中心附近的大型地震.
研究的目的:
- 模拟现实的预警时间,使用2023年卡拉曼马拉斯地震的数据.
- 评估EPIC点源算法在实时地震表征中的性能.
- 评估警报传递延迟对警告时间的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自M7.8 Pazarcık和M7.5 Elbistan地震的波形数据.
- 采用了EPIC点源算法来快速描述地震.
- 结合了基于MyShake应用数据的警报交付延迟的统计模型.
主要成果:
- 该EPIC算法提供了快速解决方案 (Pazarcık的4s,Elbistan的10s).
- 尽管最初的规模被低估了,但EPIC的估计很快得到了改善.
- 模拟显示MMI 6+震动的潜在警告时间高达20秒,警报值低.
结论:
- 即使有固有的系统延迟和初始大小不确定性,EEWS也可以有效.
- 低警报值 (MMI 3-4) 对于最大限度地提高警报时间至关重要.
- 卡拉曼马拉斯地震序列验证了EEWS在高冲击地震事件中的潜力.
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