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温度变化预测在将其限制在表现最佳的单个气候模型大集合之后仍然不确定
Laura Suarez-Gutierrez1,2,3, Nicola Maher4,5
1Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland. laura.suarez@wur.nl.
Nature communications
|December 13, 2025
概括
未来的气候变化预测显示温度变化不确定. 模型难以代表区域差异,特别是在澳大利亚,南美和非洲,可能低估了未来的变化.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 温度变化影响了极端天气事件和生态系统和社会的适应极限.
- 准确的温度变化预测对于气候变化影响评估至关重要,但面临着重大不确定性.
研究的目的:
- 评估单一模型初始条件大集合 (SMILEs) 在表示历史温度变化方面的性能.
- 使用表现良好的模型来限制温度变化的未来预测.
- 确定在表示温度变化方面存在重大建模缺陷的地区.
主要方法:
- 使用排名频率分析来评估11个中小企业与历史时期的观察数据的忠实性.
- 为了限制未来气候预测,选择了表现出优越历史区域变异性的模型.
主要成果:
- 来自表现最好的中小企业的限制性预测仍然显示全球未来温度变化变化的规模和方向存在重大不确定性.
- 在包括澳大利亚,南美和非洲在内的地区,特别是在各自的夏季季节,发现了观察到的温度变化的显著不足.
- 在模拟不良的地区,受约束的预测表明,与不受约束的多模型平均值相比,变化率的变化通常更大.
结论:
- 目前的气候模型在准确捕捉区域温度变化方面存在局限性,需要改进对关键地区的建模.
- 多模型的平均预测可能会低估未来的温度变化变化,在这些地区,模型不能很好地反映历史条件.
- 进一步的研究和模型开发对于可靠的气候变化影响评估和适应战略至关重要.
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