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基于贝叶斯等号最大化方法的地铁系统的地理信息系统集成洪水风险评估:北京的一个案例研究
Aizhong Luo1, Xingyu Yang2, Tao Li3,4
1School of Civil Engineering, Guizhou University of Engineering Science, Bijie, 551700, China.
Scientific reports
|December 14, 2025
概括
全球气候变化增加了城市洪水,威胁地铁系统. 一个新的贝叶斯共因最大化方法 (BCMM) 与GIS改善了对北京的洪水风险评估.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 土木工程 土木工程是指土木工程.
背景情况:
- 由于气候变化,极端降雨事件正在增加,加剧城市洪水.
- 城市地下铁路运输系统面临着洪水造成的重大运营安全威胁.
- 准确的空间洪水风险评估对于地铁系统的弹性至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为地铁系统开发一个全面的洪水风险评估模型.
- 提高洪水风险评估中的客观性和空间准确性.
- 将模型应用于北京地铁系统进行案例研究分析.
主要方法:
- 与地理信息系统 (GIS) 技术相结合的贝叶斯等位数最大化方法 (BCMM).
- 开发一个13个指标评估系统,涵盖危险,暴露和脆弱性.
- 多源数据的空间量化和指标权重的优化,使用贝叶斯理论和共弦值最大化.
主要成果:
- 北京中部和通州区被确定为极度高风险的洪水地区 (占总面积的4.89%).
- 在北京地铁系统内,12.45%是极度高风险,21.97%是高风险.
- 与传统的模糊分析层次过程 (FAHP) 相比,BCMM表现出更好的一致性和准确性,减少了37.5%的重量计算欧几里德距离.
结论:
- BCMM-GIS模型为地铁系统提供了更客观,更准确的洪水风险评估.
- 北京地铁系统的重要部分容易受到极端降雨洪水的影响.
- 该模型强调需要加强城市地下基础设施的洪水减缓战略.
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