归因于2022年中国前所未有的热浪的国家死亡负担
Jian-Xiong Hu1,2, Yu-Lin Zhuo1, Guan-Hao He1
1Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou, 510632, China.
Military Medical Research
|December 14, 2025
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 气候变化的影响 气候变化的影响
背景情况:
- 中国在2022年面临前所未有的热浪,引发了人们对公共卫生的担忧.
- 过去几十年显示,热浪的频率和强度呈上升趋势.
研究的目的:
- 为了量化2022年中国热浪的死亡负担.
- 为了比较2022年热浪对健康的影响与2000年至2021年的平均负担.
主要方法:
- 利用来自364个地点 (2006-2017年) 的每日死亡率和温度数据.
- 使用连续几天超过第92.5百分位数的每日最高温度 (DMT) 定义的热浪.
- 使用分布式滞后非线性模型 (DLNM) 和元分析来评估热浪与死亡率的关联,并估计368个城市 (2000-2022) 的负担.
主要成果:
- 2022年与热浪相关的死亡人数达到62,961,明显高于2000-2021年年平均值35,987.
- 易受伤害的群体包括心血管疾病患者,女性和65岁以上的个人.
- 与2000-2021年平均水平相比,2022年热浪死亡的归因部分增加了64.43%.
结论:
- 2022年的热浪给中国带来了相当大的死亡负担,人口和地区差异显著.
- 调查结果强调,迫切需要采取适应性策略,以减轻全球变暖和人口老龄化中热浪的影响.
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