在依赖下对多个测试程序的贝叶斯非参数灵敏度分析
1Departments of Mathematics, Statistics, and Computer Science and Educational Statistics, Chicago, Illinois, USA.
Biometrical journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift
|December 15, 2025
概括
本研究引入了一种新的灵敏度分析,用于使用迪里克莱特过程先验的多重测试程序 (MTP). 这种方法量化了MTP选择中的不确定性,并减少了统计发现中的保守性.
科学领域:
- 统计 统计 统计 统计
- 统计学方法论 统计学方法论
- 多种测试程序 多种测试程序
背景情况:
- 在执行众多统计测试时,多重测试程序 (MTP) 对于控制错误率至关重要.
- 现有的MTP通常需要先验选择,可能导致保守的结果或未定量的不确定性.
- p值之间的任意依赖使MTP选择和性能评估复杂化.
研究的目的:
- 为MTPs开发一种敏感性分析方法,以解释MTP选择中的不确定性.
- 提供一个框架来量化与确定重大发现时基于值的决策相关的不确定性.
- 通过考虑更广泛的程序空间,减少经常与使用单一MTP相关的保守性.
主要方法:
- 拟议的方法使用迪里克莱特过程 (DP) 之前的分布来建模MTPs的整个空间.
- 它支持MTPs控制家庭智能错误率 (FWER) 或错误发现率 (FDR).
- 该方法测量了每个p值对所有MTPs的DP先前预测分布的显著概率.
主要成果:
- DP-MTP灵敏度分析方法应用于来自大型教育数据集的28000多个p值.
- 该分析检查了COVID-19学校关闭和学生学术/背景变量之间的关系.
- 该方法为MTP决策提供不确定性量化,增强统计推理.
结论:
- DP-MTP灵敏度分析提供了一个强大的方法来理解多重测试中的不确定性.
- 这种方法允许对一系列MTP的统计意义进行更全面的评估.
- 这种方法适用于大型数据集和复杂的研究问题,正如在教育环境中所示的那样.
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