极端气候指数与大气循环模式之间的关系基于在中国西南部的宜龙湖盆地多变量波束连贯性
Ning-Ying Bao1, Wei-Feng Song1, Yan-Ting Hu1
1College of Soil and Water Conservation, Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224, China.
Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology
|December 15, 2025
概括
宜龙湖盆地的极端气候变化显示了温暖湿的趋势,受到太平洋十年振荡 (PDO) 和厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 等大气模式的影响. 这些模式共同影响各种极端气候指数.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 水文学的水文学
背景情况:
- 宜龙湖是云南一个敏感的浅平原湖,由于气候变化而面临生态和社会经济风险.
- 了解极端气候变化对于区域生态安全和发展至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析从1979年到2023年在宜龙湖盆地极端气候变化的趋势.
- 研究这些极端气候变化与大气主要循环模式之间的关系.
主要方法:
- 利用了覆盖1979-2023年的每日气象数据.
- 采用线性回归,曼-肯德尔测试,波波变换连贯性 (WTC) 和多波波波波连贯性 (MWC) 分析.
- 评估了大气循环模式的影响,包括太平洋十年振荡 (PDO),北大西洋振荡 (NAO),东大西洋/西俄罗斯 (EA/WR) 和厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO).
主要成果:
- 观察到显著的温暖湿趋势,降雨强度和空气温度增加.
- 强烈的PDO和NAO阶段与增加的暴雨事件有关.
- 发现EA/WR模式与更冷,更潮湿的条件相关,而ENSO阶段与更热,更干燥的条件相关.
- 对极端气候指数确定了联合大气模式的协同影响,PDO-NAO-EA/WR显著影响连续干湿天和温度指数.
结论:
- 宜龙湖盆地的极端气候变化在很大程度上是由多种相互作用的大气循环模式形成的.
- 据了解,PDO,NAO和EA/WR的组合在调节关键气候指数方面发挥着主导作用.
- 对于诸如最大1天降水量等指数,可能需要进一步的研究,在这些指数中,多模连贯性并不显著.
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