贝叶斯模型预测到2050年巴西风湿性心脏病的国家和地区负担
Pedro Rafael Vieira de Oliveira Salerno1, Antoinette Cotton2,3, Zhou Chen2
1Department of Medicine, NYC Health & Hospitals/Elmhurst, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, Queens, USA.
Global heart
|December 15, 2025
概括
巴西的风湿性心脏病 (RHD) 负担已经下降,预测显示到2050年,全国和地区的患病率和残疾调整寿命年 (DALYs) 持续下降.
科学领域:
- 心血管流行病学心血管流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 疾病负担分析疾病负担分析
背景情况:
- 风湿性心脏病 (RHD) 构成了重大的公共卫生挑战,特别是在低至中等收入国家.
- 尽管巴西医疗保健有所改善,但未来的RHD负担预测对于有效的政策制定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测到2050年巴西风湿性心脏病 (RHD) 的国家和地区负担.
- 为巴西的公共卫生政策和RHD管理的资源分配提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用了2021年全球疾病负担 (GBD) 研究 (2000-2021) 对RHD流行率和DALYs的数据.
- 采用贝叶斯的年龄周期队列模型来预测到2050年的趋势,计算年龄标准化率 (asPR和asDALY).
主要成果:
- 在2000-2021年期间,RHD的全国年龄标准化流行率 (asPR) 从每10万人口中的1,503人略有下降至1,495人,预计到2050年将下降至1,418人.
- 年龄标准化DALY率从每10万人口中的142个下降到104个 (2000-2021年),预计到2050年将进一步下降到75个.
- 观察到区域差异,在北方和东北地区增加,男性比女性减少更大.
结论:
- 巴西的RHD总体负担在国家和地区均呈现下降趋势.
- 未来的预测表明,RHD流行率和DALYs的持续下降,支持正在进行的公共卫生干预措施.
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