在假设的迁徙歌鸟-蚊子系统中对气候变暖的现象和生理反应进行建模
Isabella G Ragonese1,2,3, Sonia Altizer1,2,4, Courtney C Murdock2,5,6
1Odum School of Ecology University of Georgia Athens Georgia USA.
Ecology and evolution
|December 15, 2025
概括
气候变暖通过影响宿主和载体生理和生命周期,增加了载体传播疾病的风险. 模型显示,变暖会扩大疾病的传播,特别是当宿主不适应其迁移时间时.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
背景情况:
- 气候变暖对外热生物生理学产生重大影响,影响载体传播疾病.
- 内热宿主还会改变生命历史事件 (迁移,繁殖) 作为对变暖的反应.
- 很少有模型整合了宿主和载体对气候变化的现象和生理反应.
研究的目的:
- 扩展罗斯-麦克唐纳模型,包括温度对宿主和载体现象学和生理学的影响.
- 预测适度和严重的变暖情景如何影响迁徙鸟类中假设的载体传播疾病的出现.
主要方法:
- 修改了罗斯-麦克唐纳模型,以结合温度依赖的宿主和载体现象学和生理学.
- 在迁徙鸟类系统中,在中度和严重气候变暖场景下模拟疾病的出现.
主要成果:
- 模拟的载体和宿主感染的流行率随着变暖而持续增加.
- 当宿主到达现象学落后于繁殖场资源可用性时,感染患病率的增加被放大.
- 极端变暖增加了患病率,但在高温时期传播媒介生存率降低导致季后传染率下降,改变了感染季节性.
结论:
- 整合宿主,载体和寄生虫对温度的反应对于了解气候变化对疾病动态的影响至关重要.
- 主体与资源的现象不匹配加剧了由变暖驱动的疾病出现.
- 开发的建模框架可以阐明气候变化下的复杂野生动物感染模式.
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