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积极的干旱反增加了美国西南部干旱森林中的树木死亡风险
Kyle C Rodman1, Kaylie J Wilkerson1, Andreas P Wion2
1Ecological Restoration Institute Northern Arizona University Flagstaff Arizona USA.
Ecology and evolution
|December 15, 2025
概括
美国西南部松松树 (PJ) 林区的经常性干旱增加了树木死亡风险. 这些事件削弱了生态系统的弹性,导致了显著的衰退和减少树木密度,影响未来的森林健康.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 森林科学 森林科学 森林科学
背景情况:
- 干旱地区的生态系统,包括松松 (PJ) 森林,由于全球温度和干旱变化,容易受到极端干旱事件的增加.
- 在这些生态系统中,经常出现的短暂干旱会触发影响未来干旱抵抗力和森林整体健康的反机制.
研究的目的:
- 调查反复发生的干旱事件之间的相互作用如何影响美国西南PJ森林中的树木死亡风险.
- 量化树木死亡风险随时间的变化,考虑先前的干旱影响和生物物理变量.
主要方法:
- 在美国西南PJ林地 (1998-2023) 使用长期监测网络.
- 开发了通用线性混合模型,以根据生物物理变量,树木大小和以前的干旱影响 (1998-2014) 预测最近的树木死亡率 (2014-2023年).
主要成果:
- 从1998年到2023年,观测到树木密度和基面积的大幅下降.
- 自2014年以来,发现的树木死亡率超过了招募,近一半的幸存树木显示皇冠衰退.
- 鉴定出2014年至2023年间因人口变化而导致生存树的死亡风险增加了28.2%,不论是哪种物种.
结论:
- 最近的干旱事件导致了美国西南PJ林地广泛的树木死亡和枯.
- 这些干旱影响增加了未来树木死亡风险,超过了土壤条件和补偿反应带来的局部缓冲效应.
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