放大:评估SDM从大到小空间范围的可转移性
Jur R G Seuren1, Martin C E Droog2, Jelle P Hilbers1
1Department of Environmental Science, Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences (RIBES) Radboud University Nijmegen the Netherlands.
Ecology and evolution
|December 15, 2025
概括
大规模物种分布模型 (SDM) 在全国范围内表现良好,但在当地地区表现不佳. 将这些模型转移到较小的规模需要谨慎对准确的生物多样性预测和保护规划.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 生物地理学 生物地理学
背景情况:
- 物种分布模型 (SDM) 对于预测由于环境变化的生物多样性转移至关重要.
- 大规模的SDM是常见的,但它们的可转移到较小的空间尺度是不太了解.
研究的目的:
- 评估国家一级整体SDM到地方 (市政) 规模的可转移性.
- 评估SDM对荷兰7种本土爬行动物物种在不同空间范围内的预测性能.
主要方法:
- 综合物种分布模型 (SDM) 采用生物气候,土地覆盖和国家层面的土壤数据.
- 模型的性能是使用来自10个自治市的独立事件数据进行评估的,这些数据并未包括在培训中.
- 使用真实技能统计 (TSS) 量化模型性能,并使用双向ANOVA进行分析.
主要成果:
- 全国装配的集体SDM显示出高性能 (平均TSS=0.85).
- 在市级,表现显著下降 (平均每物种TSS:0.050.57;每市 -0.070.61),主要是由于特异性降低.
- 模型的性能在物种和城市之间有显著差异 (p < 0.001).
结论:
- 大规模的SDM提供了物种分布的一般指标,但缺乏对当地保护的准确性.
- 在将 SDM 的广泛输出应用于本地保护决策时,建议谨慎使用.
- 需要进一步的研究来提高SDM的本地适用性.
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