开发和验证Nomogram用于预测腹部手术的老年患者的脆弱性
Honghui Zhang1,2, Yuting Xiao2, Huimin Jin3
1Faculty of Nursing, Health Science Center, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710061, People's Republic of China.
Clinical interventions in aging
|December 15, 2025
概括
一个名图预测了经历腹部手术的老年人的脆弱性. 关键的风险因素包括年龄,低BMI和并发症,有助于针对性干预以改善外科手术结果.
科学领域:
- 老年医学 老年医学
- 外科手术的结果
- 临床风险预测预测
背景情况:
- 虚弱是一种严重的老年综合征,与不良的外科手术结果有关.
- 在接受腹部手术的脆弱老年人中,术前风险预测尚不发达.
- 识别虚弱风险因素对于改善患者护理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在接受腹部手术的老年人中识别虚弱的独立风险因素.
- 在这个人群中开发和验证一个可预测的虚弱名录.
- 帮助制定有针对性的干预措施和预防战略.
主要方法:
- 招募了790名接受腹部手术的老年患者.
- 使用蒂尔堡脆弱指数评估脆弱性.
- 采用单变量,LASSO和多变量分析来识别风险因素;使用ROC分析开发和验证了一个名录.
主要成果:
- 脆弱的发生率为74.18%.
- 确定了八个独立的风险因素:晚年,低BMI,受教育程度有限,腹腔镜检查,瘤并发症,糖尿病,抗高脂药物使用,以及高素-6.
- 诺米图表显示了可接受的预测性能,AUC为0.748 (测试组) 和0.707 (验证组).
结论:
- 开发了一种具有可接受预测性能的名图,以估计老年手术患者的脆弱概率.
- 诺米图可以指导有针对性的干预措施,以减少脆弱性和改善健康结果.
- 强调需要在老年手术中主动评估和管理脆弱性.
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