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中亚地区日益严重的热浪威胁:气候变化影响和公共卫生风险
Parya Broomandi1,2, Mehdi Bagheri2, Ali Mozhdehi Fard1
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering School of Engineering and Digital Sciences Nazarbayev University Kabanbay Batyr Ave. 53 Astana 010000 Kazakhstan.
Global challenges (Hoboken, NJ)
|December 15, 2025
概括
由于气候变化,中亚地区的极端热浪正在加剧,造成严重的公共卫生风险. 这项研究分析了热浪趋势和死亡率,敦促制定特定区域的气候政策和健康战略.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 由于气候变化和城市化,极端温度事件,特别是热浪,正在全球范围内增加.
- 中亚地区面临着因加剧的极端高温而带来的重大公共卫生挑战,但长期影响研究有限.
研究的目的:
- 分析中亚地区历史和未来的热浪趋势以及相关的健康风险.
- 在不同的气候变化情景下 (SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5) 预测热浪幅度和死亡率.
主要方法:
- 利用多套气候模型对从1959年到2100年的700个地点进行预测.
- 应用于全球气候模型 (GCM) 的偏差校正,通过减少偏差和RMSE来提高准确性.
- 分析了预计的热浪幅度 (HWM) 和与热浪相关的死亡率.
主要成果:
- 预计HWM将从26-31°C (SSP2-4.5) 增加到29-36°C (SSP5-8.5).
- 土库曼斯坦可能会经历前所未有的极端热浪.
- 哈萨克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦显示,近期热浪死亡率的增幅最高,未来会有显著的下降,但风险持续存在.
结论:
- 调查结果突出显示,中亚地区极端炎热带来的公共健康风险不断升级.
- 迫切需要针对特定地区的气候政策和公共卫生战略,以减轻与热有关的负担.
- 该研究为该地区的适应和减缓规划提供了关键数据.
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