美国塑料手术劳动力预测 (2022-2037):利用健康劳动力模拟模型预测缺口
Alexander Gibstein1, Sean Inzerillo2, Konstantinos Margetis3
1Division of Plastic and Maxillofacial Surgery, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA.
Plastic and reconstructive surgery
|December 15, 2025
概括
到2037年,美国整形外科的劳动力将面临严重的赤字,随着需求的增加,供应将下降. 这种短缺,特别是在农村地区,需要扩大培训和改善获取,以确保足够的外科护理.
科学领域:
- 整形外科工作人员分析
- 医生供需建模提供和需求.
- 获得医疗保健和公平的机会.
背景情况:
- 整形手术是一个多样化的专业,对于重建,美学和功能护理至关重要.
- 目前对美国长期整形手术劳动力充足性的理解是有限的.
- 需求的增加引发了人们对分配不当,培训能力和未来需求的担忧.
研究的目的:
- 从2022年到2037年,预测美国整形外科的劳动力供应和需求.
- 评估整形外科工作人员在国家和地区的适度.
- 识别潜在的劳动力缺口,并为政策提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用卫生资源和服务管理局的卫生劳动力模拟模型进行预测.
- 模拟的医生供应 (全职等效) 考虑实习生,退休和消耗.
- 在现状和降低障碍的场景下评估需求,分析供需比率.
主要成果:
- 预计到2037年,整形外科的供应将减少22.1%,需求将增加6%.
- 预计国家充分性将降至74% (现状) 和52% (降低障碍).
- 农村地区将继续缺乏服务,46个州可能面临赤字,而整形外科可能是专科中适度最低的.
结论:
- 预计在未来十年内,美国整形外科的劳动力将出现显著的不匹配.
- 扩大培训,有针对性的分发和减少进入障碍的政策是必不可少的.
- 解决这些问题对于确保公平获得外科护理至关重要.
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