使用可穿戴活动和多基因风险预测发生的2型糖尿病:我们所有人的生存建模研究
Md Hafizur Rahman1, Ash Arian1, Sreenivas Konda1
1Institute for Population and Precision Health, The University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA.
The Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism
|December 15, 2025
概括
每日步数和遗传风险评分 (PRS) 独立预测2型糖尿病 (T2D) 风险. 将这些因素结合起来,可以显著改善针对个性化预防策略的T2D发病率预测.
科学领域:
- 遗传学和基因组学 遗传学和基因组学
- 代谢疾病 代谢疾病
- 预防医学 预防医学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 有限证据表明,个人每日步数的统一性是有限的.
- 每日步数和2型糖尿病 (T2D) 的遗传风险的联合预测能力尚不清楚.
- 精确预防T2D需要了解个人层面的风险因素.
研究的目的:
- 评估客观测量的每日步数和多原风险评分 (PRS) 是否预测T2D发病率.
- 评估结合这些因素的机器学习模型的预测性能.
- 为了确定步数是否在不同的遗传风险档案中提供对T2D的统一保护.
主要方法:
- 来自NIH我们所有人研究计划的4,589名成年人的前性队列研究.
- 使用的Fitbit步骤数据和全基因组衍生的PRS,不包括流行T2D病例.
- 采用Cox和机器学习的生存模型来分析T2D发病率预测.
主要成果:
- 在2.92年的时间里,265名参与者患有T2D.
- 降低风险的步骤值因PRS组而异 (例如,低风险的约5,800步骤与高风险的约7,800步骤).
- 每1000步/天降低了T2D风险 (aHR为0.83),而每1个SD更高的PRS增加了风险 (aHR为2.62).
- 结合步骤和PRS显著改善了T2D预测模型 (C指数从0.748增加到0.867).
结论:
- 降低T2D风险的步数值不统一,取决于遗传风险.
- 每日步数和PRS为T2D预测提供独立和互补的信息.
- 步数和PRS的结合提高了T2D事件的预测,支持精确预防.
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