越来越多的野火摧毁建筑物的速度在与美国相邻的美国
Amanda R Carlson1, Todd J Hawbaker1, Miranda H Mockrin2
1U.S. Geological Survey, Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, Denver, CO 80225.
概括
美国的野火破坏正在增加,原因是越来越多的房屋靠近野地,建筑破坏率不断上升. 这表明野火行为更加极端,需要更好的燃料管理和社区规划.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 城市规划 城市规划
背景情况:
- 全球破坏性野火的增加以及野地城市界面 (WUI) 的住房.
- 不确定性关于破坏的增加是否源于野火行为或社区发展模式.
研究的目的:
- 评估美国境内 (2002-2022) 野火建筑暴露和破坏率的趋势.
- 研究破坏率与景观因素,生态区域和植被类型之间的关系.
主要方法:
- 绘制了362场野火附近的被毁/幸存的建筑物,这些野火摧毁了≥10座建筑物.
- 利用后勤回归来分析与景观因素对抗的破坏率.
主要成果:
- 建筑物的破坏率从10% (2002-2012) 增加到32% (2013-2022).
- 在西北常青森林中,破坏率更高 (比在草地/灌木中增加了3.4倍).
- 所有植被类型的破坏率增加,与发展,天气和烧伤严重程度相关联.
结论:
- 越来越多的野火破坏是由增加的暴露和更高的建筑破坏率驱动的.
- 研究结果表明,潜在的野火行为可能更加极端,强调需要改进燃料管理,社区规划和建筑硬化.
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