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强化的热带气旋与美国东部更频繁的危险物质管道故障有关
Elizabeth Carter1,2, Marilyn Smith3
1Civil and Environmental Engineering, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY, USA. ekcarter@syr.edu.
Scientific reports
|December 15, 2025
概括
热带气旋后,危险物质管道故障的可能性和频率显著增加,特别是强烈的热带气旋. 这一趋势自1975年以来增加了十倍,突出显示了气候变化对关键基础设施的影响.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 土木工程 土木工程是指土木工程.
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 自1970年以来,超过3万个危险物质管道 (HMP) 发生故障,造成了相当大的经济损失.
- 热带气旋是由于历史报告政策导致的HMP故障的原因.
- 热带气旋对基础设施造成的损害超过了所有其他自然灾害的总和.
研究的目的:
- 定义和量化热带气旋相关的HMP故障频率.
- 探索HMP故障概率/频率和热带气旋强度之间的关系.
- 在分析风暴和管道特征时解决遗漏的变量偏差.
主要方法:
- 定义了使用时空并发的热带气旋相关的HMP故障频率.
- 阻止HMP故障率以隔离热带气旋的影响.
- 采用统计方法来考虑非参数化的风暴和管道特征.
主要成果:
- 32.5%的美国东部HMP故障发生在热带气旋60天内.
- 随着热带气旋强度的增加,HMP故障的可能性显著增加,并且频率呈指数级增加.
- 自1975年以来,与热带气旋相关的管道故障的年频率增加了十倍.
- 交叉的热带气旋的平均最大强度从第3类增加到第4类.
结论:
- 热带气旋强度是HMP故障概率和频率的重要预测因素.
- 对自然灾害的准确归因对于HMP故障事件报告至关重要.
- 这些发现对管道设计和应对日益强烈的热带气旋的弹性有影响.
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