基于复合危险分析的伊朗近期气候极端情况
Narges Asadi-RahimBeygi1, Abbas Mofidi2, Azar Zarrin1
1Department of Geography, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, 9177948974, Iran.
Scientific reports
|December 15, 2025
概括
伊朗面临越来越多的极端气候,如热浪和干旱. 短期预测显示,高风险地区的增加,需要紧急规划适应这些天气和气候危害.
科学领域:
- 气候学和环境科学 气候学和环境科学
- 极端天气事件分析
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
背景情况:
- 伊朗位于干旱和半干旱地区,经历了显著的天气和气候极端.
- 近年来,伊朗对气候相关危险的脆弱性得到了强调.
- 了解这些极端因素对于国家风险评估和适应战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查与伊朗降雨和温度相关的气候相关危险.
- 通过近期气候预测 (NTCP) 项目分析与气候有关的危险的复杂化.
- 在后预测和预测期间评估天气和气候极端现象的严重程度和重要性.
主要方法:
- 利用CMIP6-DCPP模型模拟伊朗各地的极端气候.
- 整合了十个气候极端指数,包括大降雨,热浪,寒浪和干旱指数 (SPEI-12).
- 分析了追溯期 (1991-2019) 和预测期 (2023-2028) 的数据.
主要成果:
- 预计全国干旱频率和热浪事件的显著增加.
- 表示降水模式的转变:扎格罗斯山脉和西南部的暴雨增加,干旱更频繁但不那么强烈.
- 预计高风险气候危险地区的增加,到2028年将扩大到伊朗总面积的36%以上.
结论:
- 预计伊朗将在气候风险分布方面发生重大转变,朝着更高风险地区转移.
- 迫切的适应计划是必要的,特别是在面临复合气候危险的西部,南部扎格罗斯和东部地区.
- 已识别的多危险热点在空间上强大,强调需要有针对性的气候弹性战略.
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