害虫物种的行为可塑性可能会加剧气候变化导致的全球小麦产量损失
Gang Ma1, Sylvain Pincebourde2, Xue Bai1
1Climate Change Biology Research Group, State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China.
Nature communications
|December 16, 2025
概括
昆虫害虫可以通过行为可塑性适应极端高温,导致虫数量增加和全球小麦产量大幅下降. 这种适应挑战了粮食安全,特别是在发展中国家.
科学领域:
- 气候变化生物学
- 农业昆虫学 农业昆虫学
- 生态建模 生态建模
背景情况:
- 由于全球气候变化,极端高温事件正在增加.
- 在这种条件下,包括虫在内的昆虫害虫的数量预计将大量减少.
- 微息地的行为可塑性在害虫影响评估中经常被忽视.
研究的目的:
- 研究行为可塑性在缓冲虫害对抗极端高温中的作用.
- 量化这种缓冲效应对虫种群增长和小麦产量损失的影响.
- 在气候变暖情景下预测全球小麦产量损失.
主要方法:
- 实验室实验模拟了小虫物种的极端高温.
- 模拟虫种群动态和小麦产量损失.
- 对1977-2017年全球小麦产量和产量损失数据的分析.
主要成果:
- 行为可塑性使虫能够缓冲极端高温,促进人口增长.
- 模拟的全球小麦产量损失平均为8.7万/年 (1.2%的产量) 从1977-2017.
- 预计产量损失的加剧将比全球小麦产量增长的速度更快,不成比例地影响发展中国家.
结论:
- 昆虫害虫的行为可塑性可以抵消预期的气候变化影响,导致作物损失加剧.
- 全球粮食安全受到气候变化引起的虫害损害增加的威胁,特别是对于小麦.
- 对于准确的害虫管理和粮食安全战略,需要紧急考虑行为适应.
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