高风险群体中HZ流行的时空空间动态:自1990年以来的全球多区域队列分析
Yuan Yin1, Zhao Zhe2, Sai Zhang3
1Department of Clinical Laboratory, Shanghai TCM-Integrated Hospital Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, 200082, Shanghai, China.
Virology journal
|December 16, 2025
概括
在全球范围内,50岁以上的人群中,疹 (HZ) 发病率正在上升,这是老龄化人口所推动的. 根据社会人口指数 (SDI) 存在差异,需要针对性干预和疫苗接种来管理不断增加的疾病负担.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 老年学是指老年学的学科.
背景情况:
- 疹疹 (HZ),由疹疹病毒 (VZV) 再激活引起,由于免疫衰老,不成比例地影响50岁及以上的个人.
- 全球疾病负担研究 (GBD 2021) 提供了有价值的数据,但缺乏通过社会人口指数 (SDI) 分层的HZ不平等的详细分析和风险人群的未来预测.
研究的目的:
- 从1990年到2021年,分析HZ发病率和残疾调整寿命年 (DALYs) 在50岁以上的个人中的时空流行病学.
- 调查不同社会人口指数 (SDI) 级别的热带负担不平等情况,并预测到2035年的未来趋势.
- 确定高风险人群中HZ疾病负担的主要驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 在204个国家/地区 (1990-2021) 中,利用GBD 2021数据对50岁以上的个体的HZ发病率和DALYs.
- 雇佣年龄期队列 (APC) 模型,不平等指数 (SII/CI),边界分析和BPAC预测模型.
- 根据SDI和地理位置进行分层分析,以探索动态,驱动因素和未来趋势.
主要成果:
- 全球HZ发病率增加了128% (5.48M至12.49M例),年龄标准化发病率 (ASIR) 略有上升.
- 根据残疾调整的寿命年 (DALYs) 增加了56.8%,但年龄标准化DALY率 (ASDR) 减少,表明改善了结果或干预措施.
- 观察到显著的差异:在高SDI地区的发病率较高,但负担较低,反之亦然在低SDI地区. 女性和老年人 (≥90岁) 承受了最大的负担. 预计到2035年,发生率将增加.
结论:
- 高风险群体中的HZ负担是复杂的,受老龄化,性别,SDI和医疗保健准入的影响,突出显著的健康不平等.
- 定制的预防和控制策略至关重要,包括在高SDI地区加强监测和干预,以及在中低SDI地区改善资源.
- 广泛的疫苗接种和国际资源再分配对于减轻日益增长的热带负担和推进全球卫生公平至关重要.
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