在整个21世纪,美国河流和溪流的生态系统净产量预测下降
Qi Guan1, Kun Shi1, R Iestyn Woolway2
1State Key Laboratory of Lake and Watershed Science for Water Security, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 211135, China.
Environmental science & technology
|December 17, 2025
概括
由于气候变化,河流代谢正在发生变化,总初级产量 (GPP) 增加,生态系统呼吸 (ER) 减少. 这种向净异质变化的转变威胁到水生生物多样性和生态系统的弹性.
科学领域:
- 河流生态系统的新陈代谢.
- 水中的碳循环.
- 气候变化对淡水生态系统的影响
背景情况:
- 河流代谢对于碳循环至关重要.
- 了解气候变化对河流代谢的影响对于生态系统健康至关重要.
- 在大空间尺度上对河流代谢的长期数据有限.
研究的目的:
- 重建和分析美国大陆的长期日常河流代谢.
- 调查1980年至2020年生态系统总初级生产 (GPP),生态系统呼吸 (ER) 和生态系统净生产 (NEP) 的趋势.
- 在气候变化场景下预测未来河流代谢的变化.
主要方法:
- 利用在广泛的数据集上训练的深度学习模型.
- 重建了293条河流的每日新陈代谢.
- 分析了GPP,ER和NEP的趋势,与环境变量如排水,阳光照射,排放和温度相关.
主要成果:
- 从1980年到2020年,美国大陆河流的GPP (0.045 g O2 m-2天-1十年-1) 显著增加,ER (0.078 g O2 m-2天-1十年-1) 的下降更大.
- 这些趋势导致了过去40年生态系统净生产 (NEP) 略有下降.
- 未来的气候场景预测,NEP的持续下降速度为0.017 ± 0.008 g O2 m-2天-1十年-1.
结论:
- 河流代谢正在向净异质变化转移,这是由GPP和ER的不对称变化所驱动的.
- 这种持续的转变对水生生物多样性构成威胁.
- 流水对气候变化的生态弹性减弱是一个主要问题.
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