绘制江苏植被中的稳定性和不稳定性热点:一种可解释的机器学习方法来解释气候和人为驱动因素
Fusheng Jiao1,2, Xiaojuan Xu1, Haibo Gong3
1Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences, Ministry of Environmental Protection, Nanjing, China.
Frontiers in plant science
|December 17, 2025
概括
江苏省的植被稳定性正在整体上得到改善,这是由太阳辐射和水分所推动的. 然而,一些地区表现出越来越大的不稳定性,需要针对性的土地管理战略,以应对气候变化.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 植被的稳定性对于生态系统的弹性和适应性土地管理至关重要.
- 不断变化的气候条件需要了解植被稳定性模式.
- 中国的江苏省作为密集农业景观的重要研究区域.
研究的目的:
- 研究江苏省植被稳定的时空模式.
- 确定影响植被稳定的气候驱动因素.
- 为气候适应性土地管理提供见解.
主要方法:
- 植被生产率评估使用每年最大核正常化差异植被指数 (NDVI).
- 植被稳定性用比例变量 (PV) 和滞后一自相关性 (AR) 来量化.
- 可解释机器学习模型和SHAP依赖图用于识别气候驱动因素.
主要成果:
- 江苏的84.23%显示植被稳定性增强 (PV和AR下降),而15.77%显示不稳定性增加.
- 背景太阳辐射及其变性是主要的驱动因素,其次是蒸汽压力缺陷 (VPD).
- 适度的辐射和较高的土壤湿度促进了稳定性;升高的VPD和辐射变异性减少了它.
结论:
- 太阳辐射和湿度是耕种景观中植被稳定的关键调节因素.
- 江苏的大部分地区都处于有利的生态条件,但约40%需要注意.
- 调查结果为适应性土地管理提供了信息,以实现气候适应性.
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