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尼日利亚的小反动物瘟疫病例:2015年至2024年的10年回顾性研究

Deborah A Adetunji¹, Oluwaseun A Ogundijo, Ahmad I Al-Mustapha

¹Department of Veterinary Services, Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, Ogun State, Nigeria; and, Department of Veterinary Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria; and, College of Veterinary Surgeons of Nigeria, Abuja. dadetunji4429@stu.ui.edu.ng.

The Onderstepoort journal of veterinary research

|December 17, 2025

概括

尼日利亚的小反动物瘟疫 (PPR) 病例正在增加,区域差异很大,预计病例和动物损失将增加. 加强监测和有针对性的疫苗接种对于控制至关重要.

科学领域:

兽医流行病学兽医流行病学
动物健康经济学动物健康经济学
疾病监测和控制疾病监测和控制

背景情况:

小反动物瘟疫 (PPR) 是尼日利亚特有的高度传染性跨境动物疾病 (TAD),对小反动物养殖和国家粮食安全构成重大威胁.
了解PPR的时空分布和趋势对于在尼日利亚制定有效的控制和根除战略至关重要.

研究的目的:

评估2015年至2024年尼日利亚小动物瘟疫病例 (PPR) 的流行病学趋势.
预测尼日利亚从2025年到2030年的PPR病例发生率.
确定高风险地区,并为PPR控制提供有针对性的干预措施.

主要方法:

从2015-2024年期间的世界动物健康信息系统 (WAHIS) 中对PPR病例的二次数据的分析.
描述性统计分析,以评估疾病发生的时间和空间变化.
使用时间序列模型进行趋势分析和预测,以预测未来的PPR病例和动物损失.

主要成果:

在2020年至2024年期间,观察到PPR报告的显著增加,这表明疾病状况恶化.
在尼日利亚的农业生态区 (p=0.025) 和州 (p<0.001) 中发现了PPR病例的显著差异.
巴乌奇州和卡西纳州的疾病负担最高,分别占全国病例的四分之一以上和近10%. 预测预测PPR病例的持续年增长,到2030年达到大约35,085,估计有23,168只动物损失.

结论:

尼日利亚的畜牧业受到PPR的严重和不断增长的威胁,需要采取紧急和适应性控制措施.
针对区域的监测和定制的疫苗接种策略对于减轻PPR传播和影响至关重要.
预测建模工具对于积极的疾病管理和实现PPR根除目标至关重要.

关键词:

尼日利亚尼日利亚尼日利亚小反动物瘟疫 (Peste des petits ruminants) 是一个流行病.这是TADs.患病率的流行情况.时间空间的时间空间.趋势分析趋势分析

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