大规模枪击事件如何影响美国国会对枪支的社交媒体讨论? 因果发现和主题建模
Dmytro Bukhanevych1, Rayan Succar1,2, Maurizio Porfiri1,2,3,4
1Center for Urban Science and Progress, Tandon School of Engineering, New York University, Brooklyn, New York, United States of America.
PLOS global public health
|December 17, 2025
概括
在大规模枪击事件发生后,美国国会成员在推特上更多地谈论枪支暴力,民主党人关注受害者,共和党人关注第二修正案权利. 这种党派差异可能会阻碍政策调整.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 沟通研究 沟通研究
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
背景情况:
- 社交媒体是政治家沟通政策立场和突出问题的关键工具.
- 枪支暴力是政治家在社交媒体平台上解决的一个重要问题.
研究的目的:
- 分析美国国会成员对社交媒体上的大规模枪击事件的反应.
- 调查大规模枪击事件与立法者社交媒体活动之间的关系,检查党派沟通差异.
主要方法:
- 从2021年1月到2023年1月,分析了第117届美国国会在X (以前的Twitter) 上发布的785,881条与枪支有关的推文.
- 利用后勤回归进行效果建模,PCMCI+算法用于因果发现,以及潜在的迪里克莱特分配用于主题建模.
主要成果:
- 大规模枪击事件中较高的死亡人数与国会成员增加的与枪支有关的推特正相关 (OR=1.13).
- 在大规模枪击事件和随后的立法者社交媒体活动之间发现了因果关系 (ρ=0.122).
- 民主党人比共和党人更有可能在推特上谈论大规模枪击后的枪支 (OR=3.60),并以不同的话题为重点.
结论:
- 大规模枪击事件在美国国会成员中增加了与枪支有关的话题的讨论.
- 党派关系影响了社交媒体上枪支暴力讨论的框架,民主党人强调受害者,共和党人关注第二修正案权利和犯罪.
- 关于枪支暴力的不同党派沟通策略可能会阻碍政策制定的协调.
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