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区域范围内的山体滑坡危险和风险的定量评估:来自越南中部的一个案例研究
Raja Das1, Pham Van Tien2, Karl W Wegmann3,4
1Center for Geospatial Analytics, North Carolina State University, 2800 Faucette Dr, Raleigh, NC, 27695, USA. rdas3@ncsu.edu.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|December 17, 2025
概括
这项研究使用机器学习开发了越南中部的概率性山体滑坡危险和风险评估. 它预测了山体滑坡的位置,大小和时间,以提高社区的安全,减少自然灾害的风险.
科学领域:
- 地质科学 地质科学
- 自然危害评估自然危害评估
- 风险管理 风险管理
背景情况:
- 有效的山体滑坡危险管理需要准确预测位置,大小和时间.
- 区域范围的概率评估对于减轻社会风险至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在越南中部进行全面的概率性山体滑坡危险评估.
- 提出一个定量滑坡风险评估的方法.
- 分析滑坡的空间,时间和大小概率.
主要方法:
- 从三个库存中利用了21,234次山体滑坡事件 (台风Ketsana 2009,热带风暴Podul 2013,台风Molave 2020).
- 开发了使用九个地理因素和随机森林算法进行空间概率的山体滑坡易感模型.
- 应用了一个Poisson模型,集成时间概率的复发间隔和大小概率的频率区域分布.
- 综合空间,时间和尺寸概率与连接指数 (IC) 进行风险评估.
主要成果:
- 在三个尺寸类别 (<100 m2,100-1000 m2,1000-10,000 m2) 中划分了滑坡的空间概率.
- 使用Poisson模型估计的时间滑坡概率,用于十年内的地区级评估.
- 从频率区域分布中推导出山体滑坡大小概率.
- 开发了9个山体滑坡危险场景,2年,5年和10年的时间框架和3个山体滑坡大小.
- 计算了溪流和道路的山体滑坡风险模型,表明在较长时间内风险增加.
结论:
- 开发的方法提供了对山体滑坡风险评估的定量方法.
- 滑坡风险模型突出显示,道路网络和流相关基础设施的威胁随着时间的推移而增加.
- 调查结果支持加强保护社区和减少山体滑坡造成的社会风险的战略.
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