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Qian Tian^1,2, Xian Gu^1,2, Qian Wang^1,2

¹Traditional Chinese Medicine Processing Technology Innovation Centre of Hebei Province, College of Pharmacy Hebei University of Chinese Medicine Shijiazhuang China.

Ecology and evolution

|December 18, 2025

概括

气候变化威胁着中国的药用植物. 我们的研究项目包括三个关键物种的收缩和息地丧失,强调需要保护战略.

科学领域:

生态与保护生物学生态与保护生物学
气候变化影响评估
药用植物资源药用植物资源

背景情况:

全球气候变化正在改变息地,对药用植物物种的生存构成重大威胁.
了解重要的药用植物对气候变化的脆弱性,对于它们的可持续管理和保护至关重要.
中国的三个主要药用物种,Saposhnikovia divaricata,Seseli mairei和Ligusticopsis brachyloba,正在评估气候变化的影响.

研究的目的:

评估预计气候变化对中国三种医学重要植物物种分布的影响.
用先进的生态建模技术建模当前和未来的潜在息地.
提供基线数据,以优先保护和可持续管理这些有价值的药用资源.

主要方法:

利用随机森林 (RF) 和最大 (MaxEnt) 模型来预测物种分布.
综合物种发生数据与生物气候,地形和土壤变量.
根据2050年代和2070年代的各种未来气候场景 (RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP8.5) 预计的分布.

主要成果:

两种RF和MaxEnt模型都显示出强大的预测性能,RF显示出优越的验证指标.
物种分布受到气候和地形因素的组合的影响,每个物种都有不同的驱动因素.
未来的预测表明,所有三种物种的范围收缩,息地丧失和分布变化,而*Ligusticopsis brachyloba*面临着最大的比例下降.

结论:

预计气候变化将大大减少 *Saposhnikovia divaricata*, *Seseli mairei* 和 *Ligusticopsis brachyloba* 的稳定息地.
独特的气候和地形变量决定了每个物种的分布,需要量身定制的保护方法.
该研究强调,迫切需要进行保护规划和可持续管理战略,以减轻气候变化对这些重要药用植物的影响.

关键词:

利古斯托科普西斯 (Ligusticopsis brachyloba) (法语) 是一种植物. 人们的人民.萨波什尼科维亚·迪瓦里卡塔 (土耳其语) 这就是Schischkk.塞塞利·梅雷 H. 沃尔夫夫的作品.气候变化气候变化气候变化种类分布种类分布

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