70岁或以上的成年人心血管风险评估模型 (SCORE2,Framingham,ASCVD-2013和SCORE2-OP) 之间的协议:基于人口的研究
Cristian Orlando Porras Bueno1,2, Hector Henry Lindarte Vargas1,2, Maria Paula Ravagli Baquero1,2
1Departamento de Medicina Interna, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Bogotá, Colombia.
Clinical Medicine Insights. Cardiology
|December 18, 2025
概括
心血管风险 (CVR) 模型需要在70岁以上的成年人中进行区域验证. 与本地验证得分相比,SCORE2-OP模型可能会高估CVR,强调需要在老年人群中准确估计CVR.
科学领域:
- 心脏病学 心脏病学
- 老年病的医生 老年病的医生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 现有的心血管风险 (CVR) 预测模型通常是为年轻人群开发的.
- 创建了SCORE2-OP模型,以改善70岁及以上的成年人中CVR估计.
- 在欧洲以外的SCORE2-OP的适用性需要调查,因为CVR的潜在高估或低估.
研究的目的:
- 评估四种常见的CVR预测工具与老年人 (≥70岁) 的SCORE2-OP模型之间的一致性.
- 在哥伦比亚队列中评估弗拉明汉,ASCVD-2013,SCORE2和SCORE2-OP的一致性.
主要方法:
- 对SABE哥伦比亚研究 (2015) 的二次分析,涉及70岁及以上的成年人.
- 使用科恩二次加权的卡帕和林的一致性相关系数来评估一致性.
- 四个CVR工具 (弗雷明汉姆,ASCVD-2013,SCORE2,SCORE2-OP) 进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 分析包括586名年龄≥70岁的参与者.
- 在SCORE2-OP和哥伦比亚校准的ASCVD-2013 (kappa=0.24) 和Framingham (kappa=0.22) 模型之间发现了公平一致.
- 在SCORE2-OP与哥伦比亚校准的SCORE2模型 (kappa=0.43) 之间观察到适度一致.
结论:
- 在70岁及以上的哥伦比亚成年人中,已建立的CVR预测模型和SCORE2-OP之间存在可变一致.
- 与国家验证的分数相比,SCORE2-OP模型倾向于高估心血管风险.
- 对CVR预测模型的区域特定验证对于准确评估老年人群的风险至关重要.
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