高寿命国家的预期寿命的决定因素:机器学习的证据
Hong Zhang1,2, Haixiang Qiao2, Xiuping Li2
1School of Business, Jinggangshan University, Ji'an, China.
Frontiers in public health
|December 18, 2025
概括
经济增长 (GDP),医疗支出和教育显著提高了预期寿命 (LEX). 碳排放和互联网使用等环境因素的影响最小,突出了公共卫生政策的关键驱动因素.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
背景情况:
- 预期寿命 (LEX) 是可持续发展目标 (SDG) 3的关键指标:良好的健康和福祉.
- 了解LEX决定因素对于全球卫生政策和干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查预期寿命的多方面的决定因素 (LEX).
- 分析影响LEX的环境,经济,社会和机构因素.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自20个LEX高度国家 (2001-2023) 的面板数据.
- 采用传统的计量经济学 (PMG,固定效应,FMOLS) 和机器学习 (渐变增强,随机森林).
主要成果:
- 二氧化碳排放对LEX产生负面影响;GDP,卫生支出,教育,互联网使用,法治,政府效率和研发对LEX产生积极影响.
- 国内生产总值,卫生支出和教育是LEX的最强有力的预测指标.
- 渐变增强显示出比随机森林更优越的预测性能.
结论:
- 经济和社会因素,特别是GDP,卫生支出和教育,对于提高预期寿命至关重要.
- 政策干预应优先考虑改善人口健康和福祉的这些关键驱动因素.
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