一种机器学习方法来预测化疗治疗肺癌的死亡风险:机器学习模型开发和验证
Jianjun Zou1,2,3, Jinyi Huang4, Katie Lu5
1Institute of Tuberculosis, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China.
JMIR medical informatics
|December 18, 2025
概括
这项研究开发了一种机器学习 (ML) 模型,用于预测接受化疗的肺癌患者的死亡风险. 该模型显示了个性化预后管理的前景,改善了患者的治疗结果.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 预测接受化疗的肺癌患者的生存结果具有挑战性.
- 准确的预后对于有效的临床管理和个性化治疗策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个多变量机器学习 (ML) 模型来评估所有原因的死亡风险.
- 为了加强化疗治疗的肺癌患者的临床决策.
主要方法:
- 对1278名化疗后肺癌患者的回顾性分析.
- 使用5个算法开发84个ML模型,使用一致性索引进行优化.
- 通过ROC曲线,校准曲线和决策曲线分析进行验证;通过Shapley附加解释进行特征归因.
主要成果:
- 最佳ML模型确定了21个关键预后特征,包括临床和症状相关数据.
- 该模型在测试组中实现了0.702的一致性指数,AUC为0.740 (1年),0.777 (3年) 和0.915 (5年).
- 在1年,3年和5年的死亡率预测中,对风险值有积极的临床效用.
结论:
- 开发的ML模型为预测死亡风险提供了可接受的歧视,校准和临床益处.
- 这些模型可以帮助临床医生为接受化疗的肺癌患者提供个性化的预后管理.
更多相关视频
06:19Constructing and Visualizing Models using Mime-based Machine-learning Framework
Published on: July 22, 2025
2.2K
04:09Predicting Treatment Response to Image-Guided Therapies Using Machine Learning: An Example for Trans-Arterial Treatment of Hepatocellular Carcinoma
Published on: October 10, 2018
8.6K
相关概念视频
Cancer Survival Analysis
624
Cancer survival analysis focuses on quantifying and interpreting the time from a key starting point, such as diagnosis or the initiation of treatment, to a specific endpoint, such as remission or death. This analysis provides critical insights into treatment effectiveness and factors that influence patient outcomes, helping to shape clinical decisions and guide prognostic evaluations. A cornerstone of oncology research, survival analysis tackles the challenges of skewed, non-normally...
624
Kaplan-Meier Approach
526
The Kaplan-Meier estimator is a non-parametric method used to estimate the survival function from time-to-event data. In medical research, it is frequently employed to measure the proportion of patients surviving for a certain period after treatment. This estimator is fundamental in analyzing time-to-event data, making it indispensable in clinical trials, epidemiological studies, and reliability engineering. By estimating survival probabilities, researchers can evaluate treatment effectiveness,...
526
Statistical Methods for Analyzing Epidemiological Data
858
Epidemiological data primarily involves information on specific populations' occurrence, distribution, and determinants of health and diseases. This data is crucial for understanding disease patterns and impacts, aiding public health decision-making and disease prevention strategies. The analysis of epidemiological data employs various statistical methods to interpret health-related data effectively. Here are some commonly used methods:
858
