心血管风险预测的区域差异:对53个国家的Framingham,SCORE2和WHO模型进行比较分析
Yetong Liu1, Wenming Bian1, Sidong Li2
1Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
Journal of global health
|December 18, 2025
概括
心血管疾病 (CVD) 风险模型显示出显著的区域差异,影响全球准确的风险评估. 将这些模型定制为特定地区对于有效的预防和公平的医疗保健资源分配至关重要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学和公共卫生.
- 心血管疾病风险分层心血管疾病风险分层
- 健康差异 在健康上的差异
背景情况:
- 心血管疾病 (CVD) 风险预测模型对于临床实践和全球预防政策至关重要.
- 这些模型在不同流行病学特征的全球不同地区的准确性和一致性仍然不确定.
- 风险分配和模型协议的区域差异需要仔细检查.
研究的目的:
- 研究心血管疾病 (CVD) 风险分布的区域差异.
- 评估全球不同地区主要心血管疾病风险预测模型之间的一致性.
- 识别风险分类中的差异及其对公共卫生干预措施的影响.
主要方法:
- 分析了来自全球七个地区的53项全国代表性的健康调查.
- 使用世界卫生组织 (WHO),SCORE2和Framingham风险预测模型估计10年心血管疾病风险.
- 将个人 (86,430名年龄在40-69岁之间,没有先前的心血管疾病) 分类为低,中等或高风险组.
主要成果:
- 在世卫组织,SCORE2和弗拉明翰模型中观察到心血管疾病风险估计的全球差异很大.
- 在识别中等和高风险个体方面,发现了显著的区域差异,特别是在南亚,撒哈拉以南非洲,东亚和太平洋,拉丁美洲和加勒比地区.
- 风险分类的模式协议因地区而异,从南亚的73.91%到拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的47.54%.
结论:
- 世卫组织,SCORE2和弗拉明汉心血管疾病风险模型显示出显著的区域差异,导致不一致的风险人群识别.
- 这些差异构成治疗不足和医疗资源分配效率低下的风险.
- 对心血管疾病风险模型的特定区域调整对于加强风险向,促进健康公平,提高初级预防的有效性至关重要.
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