机器学习分类和回归模型的比较,用于预测研究生公共卫生学生的学业成绩
Amira Fathy Abdallah Sayed1,2, Mostafa Ahmed Arafa1, Nessrin Ahmed El-Nimr1
1Department of Epidemiology, High Institute of Public Health Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt.
机器学习 (ML) 模型可以预测研究生学术表现 (AP). 回归模型,特别是Ensemble (软投票),对于AP预测比分类更有效,识别了诸如失败课程等关键因素.
科学领域:
- 人工智能的人工智能
- 教育数据挖掘教育数据挖掘
- 高等教育中的机器学习
背景情况:
- 机器学习 (ML) 为学生的学业成绩 (AP) 提供了预测能力.
- 预测AP对于学术机构的及时干预和资源分配至关重要.
- 之前的研究已经探索了各种ML技术用于AP预测,成功程度各不相同.
研究的目的:
- 评估ML分类和回归模型在预测研究生学业成绩方面的有效性.
- 确定研究生学业成绩的关键预测因素.
- 为了比较不同的ML算法对AP预测的性能.
主要方法:
- 对922名研究生学术记录 (2020-2024) 的横截面分析.
- 利用了22个功能,包括预注册指标,学业表现和人口统计数据.
- 经过训练和验证的分类 (例如,随机森林) 和回归 (例如,集体软投票) 模型使用5倍交叉验证.
主要成果:
- 回归模型在预测AP方面表现优于分类模型.
- 组合 (软投票) 实现了最高准确度 (74.25%) 和最佳回归指标 (MAE: 0.3383,RMSE: 0.4316).
- 失败的课程数量,学士学位大学,专业,部门和预注册CGPA都是重要的预测指标.
结论:
- 基于回归的ML模型,特别是Ensemble (软投票),对于预测研究生学业绩效非常有效.
- 失败的课程成为AP最有影响力的预测因素.
- 这些发现支持积极主动地支持学生,并强调需要在未来的研究中纳入心理社会因素.
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