中国大陆流感类疾病爆发的时空模式和相关因素:贝叶斯模型研究
Xifei Guan1,2, Zhixin Zhu1, Feng Jiang1
1Department of Big Data in Health Science, Center for Clinical Big Data and Statistics, the Second Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 310058, China.
BMC public health
|December 19, 2025
概括
中国的类似流感疾病 (ILI) 爆发显示出季节性模式和空间聚类. 温度,阳光和风速等因素降低了风险,而表面压力,男性比例,年轻人口,GDP和浮动人口增加了LI爆发风险.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 空间分析 空间分析
背景情况:
- 流感发病率在中国很高,对流感类疾病 (ILI) 爆发的公共卫生意义的研究有限.
- ILI,定义为发烧与咳或喉疼痛,具有与实验室确认的流感不同的特征.
- 在对中国大陆ILI疫情的系统流行病学研究中存在差距.
研究的目的:
- 在中国大陆开展一项ILI疫情的时空建模研究.
- 确定LI爆发的高风险地区.
- 探索影响ILI爆发的潜在风险因素.
主要方法:
- 利用来自中国国家流感中心 (2013-2022) 的LI疫情数据.
- 采用空间自相关性,中位数中心和标准偏差圆分析 (ArcGIS 10.7).
- 进行了时空扫描分析 (SaTScan 10.1.2) 并应用了贝叶斯层次模型.
主要成果:
- ILI疫情表现出明显的季节性 (北方冬季,南方冬季/春季) 和特定省份的空间聚合.
- 更高的温度,更长的阳光持续时间和更高的风速是保护因素 (较低的RR).
- 增加的表面压力,男性比例,14岁及以下的人口,人均GDP和浮动人口与较高的LI爆发风险 (较高的RR) 相关.
结论:
- 中国的LI爆发表明了明显的季节性和空间聚合.
- 确定了影响ILI爆发风险的关键气象和社会经济因素.
- 建议加强监测,优化资源配置,并在高风险地区和季节加强疫苗接种.
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