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[模拟多场景的土地利用变化和北京保护区的碳储存]

Ruo-Yuan Dang¹, Jin-Feng Wang¹, Zi-Yu Zhou¹

¹School of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China.

Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue

|December 19, 2025

概括

北京北京北京北京北京

科学领域:

生态经济学生态经济学
环境科学环境科学
空间分析是一种空间分析.

背景情况:

准确评估陆地生态系统的碳储存对于理解区域碳循环至关重要.
保护区是重要的生态碳池,有助于实现碳中和目标.
北京已经建立了一个全面的保护区系统,需要对其碳储存动态进行分析.

研究的目的:

模拟到2035年在自然发展和生态保护场景下北京保护区的土地利用变化.
分析这些保护区内碳储存的时间和空间演变.
评估保护区管理对碳储存和生态系统服务的有效性.

主要方法:

结合G-MOP和PLUS模型用于土地使用变化模拟.
集成用于碳储存分析的InVEST模型.
对2000-2020年保护区土地利用和碳动态的时间和空间分析以及到2035年的预测.

主要成果:

北京的保护区覆盖面在2000-2020年间大幅扩大,森林面积增加,草原面积减少.
北京保护区的碳总储量从2000年的8.246亿上升到2020年的8.309亿,其中大部分增长发生在2000-2005年之间.
2035年的生态保护场景预计碳储量增加到8589万,与自然发展场景下的预计减少形成鲜明对比.

结论:

北京的保护区管理已成功增强了区域碳储存和生态系统服务.
限制生态价值土地转化为城市用途对于保持生态安全至关重要.
这些发现为保护区规划和管理提供了理论基础,支持北京的生态安全和未来资源利用战略.

关键词:

在InVEST模型中,这是一个PLUS模型.储存碳是为了储存碳.土地使用情况土地使用情况保护区保护区保护区

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