[基于PLUS-INVEST模型的空间时间演变和凯都河流域碳储存的预测]
Qing-Qing Peng1, Dilinuer Aji1,2, Ping-Ping Li1,2
1College of Geography Science and Tourism, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi 830054, China.
Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue
|December 19, 2025
概括
生态保护方案最能支持中国西北地区的可持续碳库存发展.
科学领域:
- 生态系统的碳库存 生态系统的碳库存
- 土地使用变化 土地使用变化
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
背景情况:
- 在中国"双碳"战略下,管理碳排放对干旱地区至关重要.
- 了解土地利用对碳捕获的影响对于生态可持续性至关重要.
- 凯杜河流域为干旱地区土地管理提供了一个关键的案例研究.
研究的目的:
- 分析凯杜河流域土地利用和生态系统碳库存的空间和时间动态.
- 预测到2030年在各种发展情景下,未来的土地使用和碳库存趋势.
- 评估可持续碳管理的不同场景的有效性.
主要方法:
- 利用PLUS-INVEST模型模拟土地使用演变和碳库存变化.
- 纳入了12个驱动因素来预测土地使用和碳库存趋势.
- 评估了三个情景:自然发展,生态保护和2030年经济发展.
主要成果:
- 草原和未使用的土地占主导地位2000-2020年,转向耕地,森林和建筑用地.
- 总碳库存稳步增加,主要来自草原,北部的碳库存更高.
- 生态保护场景预计到2030年碳库存增加最多.
结论:
- 土地利用变化对生态系统的碳储量产生重大影响,可能产生收益和损失.
- 生态保护场景为可持续增强碳库存提供了最有前途的途径.
- 这些发现为干旱地区的区域碳排放管理和土地利用规划提供了基础.
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