中国的甲状腺癌负担:1990年至2021年的趋势和对全球趋势的15年预测
Jing Lin1,2, Huan Ge3, Zi-En Qin4
1Department of General Surgery Xiangya Hospital Central South University Changsha Hunan People's Republic of China.
OTO open
|December 19, 2025
概括
中国的甲状腺癌发病率急剧上升,而死亡率下降却停滞不前,与全球趋势不同. 预测显示,发病率持续快速增长,突出显示需要优化查和过度诊断管理.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 中国的甲状腺癌负担显示出明显的时间趋势.
- 了解这些趋势对于有效的公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析从1990年到2021年中国甲状腺癌负担的时间趋势和转折点.
- 预测到2035年未来的甲状腺癌发病率和死亡率.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自2021年全球疾病负担数据库的数据.
- 用于趋势分析的Joinpoint回归和未来预测的贝叶斯年龄-周期-队列模型.
- 通过边界分析探索了癌症负担与社会人口统计指数之间的关联.
主要成果:
- 从1990年到2021年,中国的年龄标准化发病率和流行率 (ASIR,ASPR) 显著增加 (AAPC:2.98%,2.25%).
- 根据年龄标准化的死亡率和根据残疾调整的寿命年率 (ASMR,ASDR) 下降 (AAPC: -0.65%, -0.56%).
- 中国的ASIR和ASPR在2005年后加速增长,与全球趋势有所不同,未来的ASIR预计将增长速度快于全球平均水平.
结论:
- 中国的甲状腺癌负担显示出迅速增加的发病率和停滞不前的死亡率下降,与全球模式不同.
- 强化检测是这些趋势的一个可能驱动因素.
- 公共卫生战略必须专注于优化查和管理过度诊断.
更多相关视频
相关概念视频
Targeted Cancer Therapies
8.6K
The targeted cancer therapies, also known as “molecular targeted therapies,” take advantage of the molecular and genetic differences between the cancer cells and the normal cells. It needs a thorough understanding of the cancer cells to develop drugs that can target specific molecular aspects that drive the growth, progression, and spread of cancer cells without affecting the growth and survival of other normal cells in the body.
There are several types of targeted therapies against...
There are several types of targeted therapies against...
8.6K
Tumor Progression
7.2K
Tumor progression is a phenomenon where the pre-formed tumor acquires successive mutations to become clinically more aggressive and malignant. In the 1950s, Foulds first described the stepwise progression of cancer cells through successive stages.
Colon cancer is one of the best-documented examples of tumor progression. Early mutation in the APC gene in colon cells causes a small growth on the colon wall called a polyp. With time, this polyp grows into a benign, pre-cancerous tumor. Further...
Colon cancer is one of the best-documented examples of tumor progression. Early mutation in the APC gene in colon cells causes a small growth on the colon wall called a polyp. With time, this polyp grows into a benign, pre-cancerous tumor. Further...
7.2K
Cancer Survival Analysis
629
Cancer survival analysis focuses on quantifying and interpreting the time from a key starting point, such as diagnosis or the initiation of treatment, to a specific endpoint, such as remission or death. This analysis provides critical insights into treatment effectiveness and factors that influence patient outcomes, helping to shape clinical decisions and guide prognostic evaluations. A cornerstone of oncology research, survival analysis tackles the challenges of skewed, non-normally...
629
The Thyroid Gland
6.5K
The thyroid gland is a small, butterfly-shaped gland located in the neck and covers the anterior surface of the trachea. The gland has two lateral lobes connected by a thin tissue mass called the isthmus. Internally, each lobe comprises many small spherical structures known as thyroid follicles, surrounded by a network of blood vessels.
The follicles have a central cavity lined by simple cuboidal to squamous epithelial cells called follicular cells. These cells produce the glycoprotein...
The follicles have a central cavity lined by simple cuboidal to squamous epithelial cells called follicular cells. These cells produce the glycoprotein...
6.5K
Cancer
53.4K
Cancers arise due to mutations in genes involved in the regulation of cell division, which leads to unrestricted cell proliferation. Modern science and medicine have made great strides in the understanding and treatment of cancer, including eradicating cancer in some patients. However, there is still no cure for cancer. This is largely due to the fact that cancer is a large group of many diseases.
53.4K
Functions of Thyroid Hormones
4.9K
The thyroid hormone (TH) plays a pivotal role in the intricate orchestration of physiological processes, exerting profound effects on development, metabolism, and homeostasis throughout different life stages.
TH is indispensable for the normal development and maturation of the skeletal, muscular, and nervous systems during fetal and childhood growth. It facilitates bone mineral turnover and regulates protein synthesis in developing tissues, contributing significantly to overall growth and...
TH is indispensable for the normal development and maturation of the skeletal, muscular, and nervous systems during fetal and childhood growth. It facilitates bone mineral turnover and regulates protein synthesis in developing tissues, contributing significantly to overall growth and...
4.9K


