菌病在新疆的时空分布和控制,2005-2023年
Zhe Yin1,2, Guangzhong Shi1, Yalikun Maimaitiyiming1
1Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Urumqi, China.
PLoS neglected tropical diseases
|December 19, 2025
概括
新疆的球菌病发病率在2017年达到峰值,然后下降,但在2023年仍然很高. 时空分析揭示了新疆北部的热点和南部的冷点,凸显了持续控制努力的必要性.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 传染病监测 传染病监测 传染病
背景情况:
- 脊髓灰质炎在全球范围内构成了重大公共卫生挑战.
- 了解其流行病学模式对于有效控制至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 从2005年到2023年,调查球菌病在新疆的流行病学特征.
- 为评估预防和控制进展提供证据,并指导未来的战略.
主要方法:
- 利用来自中国传染病监测和报告系统 (2005-2023) 的报告发病率数据.
- 员工结合点回归和空间自相关性用于趋势和分布分析.
- 构建了线性回归 (LR),空间自回归 (SAR) 和空间时空自回归 (STAR) 模型来评估影响因素.
主要成果:
- 发病率在每10万人口中从1.95到10.85不等,在2017年后有所下降,但仍然高于2005年.
- 观察到显著的积极空间相关性,在新疆北部有高发病率的热点 (例如,塔,博塔拉,伊利) 和南部有低发病率的冷点 (例如,喀什,霍坦).
- 根据STAR模型,年份,空间延迟和时间延迟显著影响了发病率,这表明时间连续性和空间溢出效应.
结论:
- 新疆的 Echinococcosis 显示出显著的时间空间异质性.
- 预防计划已经减少了2017年后的发病率,但疾病负担仍然很大.
- 持续的,区域协调的控制策略对于防止复苏至关重要.
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