在肯尼亚使用时间序列模型跟踪实现可持续发展目标3.2的进展
Welcome Jabulani Dlamini1,2, Sileshi Fanta Melesse2, Henry Godwell Mwambi2
1Focus Area for Pure and Applied Analytics, North-West University, Private Bag X6001, Potchefstroom, North-West, South Africa Dlaminwel@gmail.com.
BMJ global health
|December 19, 2025
概括
肯尼亚 肯尼亚 肯尼亚 肯尼亚
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
背景情况:
- 可持续发展目标 (SDG) 3.2的目标是到2030年将五岁以下儿童死亡率 (UFMR) 降低到每1000例活产死亡人数的25例以下.
- 撒哈拉以南非洲地区在儿童生存方面面临挑战,高的UFMR和停滞不前的进展.
- 肯尼亚的UFMR趋势对于评估儿童生存策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 模拟肯尼亚到2030年实现可持续发展目标3.2目标的可能性.
- 分析肯尼亚五岁以下儿童死亡率的历史趋势.
- 预测未来的UFMR轨迹.
主要方法:
- 将自回归集成移动平均 (ARIMA),自回归分数集成移动平均 (ARFIMA) 和混合模型与国家UFMR数据 (1995-2022) 相结合.
- 根据信息标准,预测准确性和残留诊断,选择ARIMA (0,2,1) 作为最合适的模型.
- 使用平均绝对误差,根平均平方误差,平均绝对百分比误差和80/20列车测试分割验证了模型.
主要成果:
- 肯尼亚的UFMR略有下降,但下降速度正在放缓.
- 预计2030年的UFMR为每1000个活产婴儿中有27.8例死亡 (95%PI:25.2-30.3),超过了可持续发展目标3.2的目标.
- 实现可持续发展目标3.2要求从2023年起每年每1000人死亡人数减少约2.43人.
结论:
- 肯尼亚的UFMR已经显著下降,但在没有加强干预措施的情况下,在2030年前实现可持续发展目标3.2目标不太可能.
- 加快进步需要改善母婴健康服务,社区干预和解决社会决定因素.
- 未来的儿童死亡率监测和预测可以通过更高质量的数据和先进的建模技术来改进.
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