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粮食系统转型途径将1.5°C的全球变暖与改善的健康,环境和社会包容性相协调
Benjamin Leon Bodirsky1,2, Felicitas Beier3,4, Florian Humpenöder3
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany. bodirsky@pik-potsdam.de.
Nature food
|December 19, 2025
概括
结合23个粮食系统措施,可以在2050年前显著改善公共卫生,环境可持续性和经济成果. 这些综合战略减少了权衡,增强了转型全球粮食系统的共同利益.
科学领域:
- 粮食系统分析 粮食系统分析
- 全球环境建模
- 公共卫生影响评估 公共卫生影响评估
背景情况:
- 改变全球粮食系统对于可持续发展至关重要.
- 了解食品系统干预措施的多方面的影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化23个食品系统措施对15个结果指标的影响.
- 评估到2050年对公共卫生,环境,社会包容和经济的影响.
- 评估联合措施的潜力,以减少权衡和增强副效益.
主要方法:
- 全球粮食和土地系统建模框架的应用.
- 通过各种结果指标量化影响.
- 预测影响到2050年.
主要成果:
- 单个措施存在权衡,但组合提供了显著的副效益.
- 综合措施可以将每年死亡率减少1.82亿生命年.
- 过剩几乎可以减少一半,对贫困的负面影响可以抵消.
- 通过联合粮食系统和外部努力,实现1.5°C气候目标是可行的.
结论:
- 综合食品系统措施是实现多个可持续发展目标的关键.
- 综合干预的协同效应可以克服个人的局限性.
- 包括外部行动在内的整体方法对于气候稳定等全球目标是必要的.
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