一个世纪的出现:人类病毒病原体的趋势和模式,1900-2024,一个系统的审查
Ashley Quigley1, Rosalie Chen2, Adriana Notaras2
1Biosecurity Program, The Kirby Institute, Faculty of Medicine and Health, UNSW, Sydney, Australia. ashley.quigley@unsw.edu.au.
BMC infectious diseases
|December 20, 2025
概括
新兴传染病 (EIDs) 呈现时间峰值,其中像流感和冠状病毒这样的RNA病毒占主导地位. 技术进步和全球监测影响病毒的出现模式和检测.
科学领域:
- 病毒学 病毒学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 新出现的传染病 (EIDs) 是一个重大的全球卫生挑战.
- 了解EIDs的时间,地理和生物模式对于有效的预防和控制至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 系统地审查和分析人类病毒的出现模式.
- 为了确定病毒性EID的趋势,起源,传播方式和临床表现.
- 开发一种交互式工具,用于探索病毒出现数据.
主要方法:
- 进行了对在1900年至2024年期间报告的212种人类病毒的系统审查.
- 利用了来自Scopus,PubMed和灰色文献的数据,应用了适应的PRISMA框架.
- 分析时间趋势,地理起源,传播和临床综合征,使用一种新的可视化工具.
主要成果:
- 病毒的出现在1950年至1979年 (87种病毒) 之间达到顶峰,自2000年以来 (52种病毒) 再次出现.
- 美国,中国和澳大利亚最常被报告为最初检测地点.
- RNA病毒,特别是流感和冠状病毒,占主导地位;62%的EID是载体传播或动物传播的.
结论:
- 技术,生态和社会人口因素显著影响病毒的出现.
- 开发的交互式可视化工具有助于理解历史趋势,并为未来的监控策略提供信息.
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