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转型型的土地利用变化向净零:通过森林扩张和减少苏格兰的牲畜来平衡排放
Alessandro Gimona1, Marie Castellazzi1, Doug Wardell-Johnson1
1The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, AB15 8QH, Aberdeen, UK.
The Science of the total environment
|December 21, 2025
概括
增加森林和减少畜牧业可以帮助苏格兰到2050年实现净零排放. 然而,仅仅依靠树木是不够的;可持续的气候缓解需要采取整体方法.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
- 土地使用管理 土地使用管理
背景情况:
- 苏格兰的目标是到2050年实现净零碳排放.
- 土地利用变化,如植树和减少畜牧业,是潜在的缓解策略.
- 现有的场景 (SSP1,UK-CCC) 提供了模拟这些变化的框架.
研究的目的:
- 调查多功能造林和减少牲畜对苏格兰净零目标的贡献.
- 模拟森林形成和牲畜减少的空间和时间模式.
- 为了比较这两种土地利用变化在2020年至2050年间对碳排放的相对影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了共享社会经济路径 (SSP1) 和英国气候变化委员会 (UK-CCC) 的场景.
- 用生物多样性和生态系统服务的多标准方法建模了广泛的森林创建.
- 纳入年度畜牧业减少和相关的温室气体 (甲,N2O) 排放减少.
- 考虑了空间土壤碳损失和时间树木种植动态.
主要成果:
- 树木每年捕获的碳可以平衡到2050年减少的牲畜排放量.
- 从2020年到2050年的累计排放仍然很大,由于水槽和,抵消延迟和暂时.
- 空间明确的土地利用规划至关重要,以尽量减少与生态系统和粮食安全的权衡.
结论:
- 仅仅是植树是不够的,以实现到2050年净零.
- 必须采取整体的方法,将土地利用变化与饮食转变,减少食物浪费以及国际合作相结合.
- 高分辨率数据对于有效的土地利用规划至关重要.
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