五岁以下儿童死亡率估计方法:一项方法学系统性审查
Bereket Kefale1, Jonine Jancey2, Amanuel T Gebremedhin3
1Curtin School of Population Health, Curtin University, Perth, Western Australia, Australia; Department of Reproductive and Family Health, School of Public Health, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Wollo University, Dessie, Ethiopia.
Annals of epidemiology
|December 21, 2025
概括
本系统性审查综合了全球五岁以下死亡率 (U5M) 估计方法. 调查结果揭示了显著的差异和挑战,强调需要协调方法和改进的重要登记系统,以获得准确的U5M数据.
科学领域:
- 全球儿童健康研究全球儿童健康研究
- 流行病学方法的方法.
- 人口统计分析 人口统计分析
背景情况:
- 准确估计五岁以下儿童死亡率 (U5M) 对全球卫生倡议和政策制定至关重要.
- 现有的U5M估计方法在应用和基本假设方面表现出相当大的多样性.
- 方法审查对于了解U5M估计技术的情况至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 系统地识别和综合所有现有的方法来估计全球五岁以下的死亡率 (U5M).
- 提供对U5M估计中使用的当前方法的全面概述.
- 通过突出当前U5M估计方法的优缺点,为未来的研究和政策提供信息.
主要方法:
- 在七个主要数据库和灰色文献来源中进行了系统的文献搜索.
- 该审查包括从开始到2025年9月25日的研究.
- 审查协议被前性地注册在PROSPERO (CRD42023465476) 上.
主要成果:
- 56项研究符合本次审查的纳入标准.
- 间接方法 (16项研究) 最常见,其次是全球疾病负担 (GBD) 研究方法 (12项研究) 和直接方法 (11项研究).
- 时空高斯过程回归和贝叶斯B-spline偏差减小模型经常被应用,地理范围,数据源和统计建模的显著差异.
结论:
- 在五岁以下儿童死亡率估计方法中存在显著的异质性,这在数据可用性,不确定性量化和偏差调整方面带来了挑战.
- 协调方法方法和改进估计技术对于提高U5M数据可靠性至关重要.
- 加强重要登记系统对于产生准确,可靠的数据至关重要,这对于基于证据的决策和实现U5M减少目标至关重要.
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