来自湖泊和水库的未来甲排放量
David Bastviken1, Matthew S Johnson2
1Department of Thematic Studies-Environmental Change, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden.
概括
全球内陆水域,包括湖泊和水库,由于气候变化,预计到2099年甲排放量将大幅增加24-91%. 这凸显了缓解全球变暖及其对甲释放的影响的迫切需要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 地质化学 地质化学
背景情况:
- 全球湖泊和水库的排放量约占全球甲 (CH4) 的10%.
- 了解这些排放对气候变化的敏感性至关重要.
- 未来对CH4流量的预测是必要的,以告知缓解策略.
研究的目的:
- 为了建模和预测全球湖泊和水库未来的开放水中甲 (CH4) 流量.
- 评估不同气候变化情景 (IPCC SSP) 对CH4排放的影响.
- 确定影响未来内水CH4排放的关键驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 利用数据驱动的,全球网格化的建模方法.
- 包含多个预测变量和同行评审,现场验证的流量数据.
- 在IPCC各种共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 下模拟的CH4流.
主要成果:
- 预计到2080-2099年,湖泊和水库的CH4总排放量将从24%增加到91%.
- 温度和季节性变化被确定为推动排放增加的主导因素.
- 水体面积和营养物质负载的变化也对水库排放作出了重大贡献.
结论:
- 尽量减少气候变化是迫切需要的,以防止未来内陆水的CH4排放量大幅增加.
- 在所有度范围内预测会有显著的CH4排放变化.
- 该研究强调了内陆水域在未来气候条件下在全球甲循环中的关键作用.
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