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全球气候模式对近期和未来气候条件下的连续美国野火发生的影响

Theodore R Keeping^1,2,3, Theodore G Shepherd⁴, I Colin Prentice^3,5

¹Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UK.

Climate dynamics

|December 22, 2025

概括

气候变化对美国各地的野火发生有重大影响. 厄尔尼诺南部振荡 (ENSO),印度洋双极 (IOD) 和热带北大西洋 (TNA) 影响着火灾风险,在未来的变暖情景下,影响将加剧.

科学领域:

气候科学气候科学
生态生态学生态生态学
大气科学大气科学

背景情况:

像ENSO这样可预测的气候变化模式会影响区域天气和野火发生.
气候模式和美国野火变异性之间存在历史关联,但空间影响细节缺乏.
卫星记录太短,无法完全评估长期气候模式对野火的影响.

研究的目的:

描述特定气候模式对美国连续地区野火发生的影响.
在近期和未来 (+2°C) 的气候条件下分析这些影响.
确定关键的气候驱动因素及其对年度火灾发生的空间影响.

主要方法:

利用了一种野火发生模型,用EC-Earth3.3的1600模拟年进行了大量模拟.
模拟了最近 (2000-2009年) 和未来 (+2°C全球变暖) 的气候条件.
分析了ENSO,IOD和热带北大西洋 (TNA) 对火灾发生的影响,重点关注炎热/干燥条件和降水模式.

主要成果:

ENSO,IOD和TNA+1显著影响每年发生的火灾,主要是通过大平原的炎热干燥条件和西南部的降雨.
厄尔尼诺现象与西北地区野火发生没有显著的关联,但西南和东南地区的季节高峰会会发生转移.
在未来的变暖下,大西洋多年周期振荡 (AMO) 和太平洋北美模式 (PNA) 成为显著的影响,ENSO/TNA+1影响加剧.

结论:

气候变化模式是美国野火发生的关键驱动因素,具有明显的区域影响.
预计未来的气候变暖将放大某些气候模式对野火风险的影响.
了解这些远程连接对于改善季节性野火风险预测和管理策略至关重要.

关键词:

气候模式气候模式气候变化的变化.电信连接电信连接电信连接野火大火在野火大火野火建模的野火模型.

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