在蒙德尔 (太阳) 最低值期间,东亚的热带气旋活动加剧
Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin1, Wan-Ling Tseng2, Yu-Shiuan Lin3
1Graduate Institute of Sustainability Management and Environmental Education, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei 116059, Taiwan.
概括
一个653年的热带气旋 (TC) 记录揭示了1650年至1680年的峰值活动. 这一时期与马恩德最小值相吻合,TC频率增加,与陆海热对比和动态季风有关.
科学领域:
- 古气候学 古气候学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 历史文献记录为重建过去的气候事件提供了关键数据.
- 了解热带气旋 (TC) 的长期行为对于适应气候变化至关重要.
- 西北太平洋是研究TC活动及其气候驱动因素的关键地区.
研究的目的:
- 为了重建西北太平洋的长期热带气旋 (TC) 时间表.
- 分析从1368年到2020年的TC频率和变异性.
- 调查过去的TC活动与气候条件 (包括莫恩德极低值) 之间的关系.
主要方法:
- 在REACHES数据库中数字化和验证历史文档记录.
- 重建的TC系列与早期仪器数据 (1884-1911) 和其他重建的比较.
- 对653年西北太平洋TC年代 (1368-2020) 的分析.
主要成果:
- 建立了653年的TC年代表 (1368-2020年),在1650-1680.0之间观察到峰值频率.
- 在中国南部和东部沿海地区发现了TC活动的显著变化,随着季节性行为变化.
- 峰值TC时期与马恩德最小值 (较冷的陆地温度) 和较温暖的西太平洋海面温度相吻合.
结论:
- 马恩德极低期间陆海热对比度的变化很可能增强了夏季季风的循环,导致TC活动增加.
- 历史的TC活动模式提供了对正在进行的全球气候变化的潜在反应的见解.
- 这项研究为了解气候变化中的TC行为提供了关键证据.
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