对PISA成就分数的动态建模:对人工神经网络和微分方程系统方法的比较分析
1Faculty of Engineering, Architecture and Design, Department of Engineering Basic Sciences, Kayseri University, Kayseri, Türkiye. bdasbasi@kayseri.edu.tr.
Scientific reports
|December 22, 2025
概括
人工神经网络和微分方程有效地建模了教育问题.
科学领域:
- 教育研究教育研究
- 计算建模计算建模
- 数据科学是数据科学.
背景情况:
- 学生在数学,科学和阅读方面的成绩至关重要.
- 像PISA这样的国际评估提供了关键的基准.
- 了解教育问题的影响对于改善至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查9个教育问题的影响PISA分数.
- 在本分析中,比较人工神经网络 (ANN) 和微分方程系统 (DES) 的有效性.
- 确定影响学生成绩的最有影响力的教育因素.
主要方法:
- 使用线性微分方程模型来计算动态变量变化.
- 采用了具有触点过度表格激活函数的ANN来将教育问题 (输入) 与PISA分数 (输出) 联系起来.
- 估计模型参数使用最小正方形拟合和评估准确性与RMSE和R-squared等指标.
主要成果:
- 在预测PISA分数方面,ANN和DES模型都表现出高准确度.
- 与DES相比,ANN模型的误差水平略低,整体适应性更好.
- 敏感性分析确定了影响学生成绩的关键教育变量.
结论:
- ANN和DES是分析教育问题与学生成绩之间的复杂关系的强大工具.
- 在预测准确性和模型合适性方面,ANN方法提供了轻微的优势.
- 调查结果提供了对影响国际教育成绩的关键因素的见解.
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