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黄河沿线省份的水资源系统的弹性评估和时空演变分析
Fang Wan1,2, Yuze Kang1, Yu Wang3
1North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, 450046, China.
Scientific reports
|December 22, 2025
概括
黄河省份的水资源系统弹性显示出波动性的上升趋势,自2019年以来一直在增加. 四川和河南表现出更高的弹性,而其他省份保持中等水平.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
- 系统工程 系统工程
背景情况:
- 黄河流域面临着复杂的水资源挑战.
- 评估水资源系统的弹性对于可持续发展至关重要.
- 现有的框架可能无法完全捕捉到弹性的多维性质.
研究的目的:
- 为水资源系统建立一个全面的弹性评估框架.
- 评估九个黄河省份水资源系统弹性的时空演变.
- 确定水资源系统弹性方面的区域差异和趋势.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个多维评估框架,包含气象学,水文学,社会经济学,生态学和工程学的34个指标.
- 应用了以类似于理想解决方案的订单偏好技术 (TOPSIS) 来进行弹性评估.
- 利用基于游戏理论的组合权重方法来衡量指标的重要性.
主要成果:
- 黄河省份的水资源系统弹性从2009年到2022年显示出整体波动的上升趋势.
- 2019年之后,弹性水平普遍上升,最高值记录在2021年.
- 四川和河南省实现了更高的弹性 (第二级),而其余的省份显示了适度的弹性 (第三级).
结论:
- 黄河流域水资源系统的弹性正在改善,但显示出显著的空间和时间变化.
- 气候变化和政策实施显著影响了山西,甘和青海等省份的弹性.
- 需要有针对性的管理策略来增强所有省份的弹性,特别是那些中等水平的省份.
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