通过使用回归模型分析利用率和成本,评估建筑设备事故风险
Minwoo Song1, Jaewook Jeong1, Jaehyun Lee2
1Department of Safety Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|December 23, 2025
概括
这项研究开发了一种回归模型,使用成本和利用数据来预测建筑设备事故. 该模型将挖掘机确定为具有最高死亡风险的挖掘机,有助于安全管理.
科学领域:
- 建设管理建设管理.
- 职业安全与健康问题 职业安全与健康问题
- 风险分析 风险分析
背景情况:
- 建筑设备是必不可少的,但会带来重大事故风险.
- 技术进步增加了设备需求,并引入了新的安全挑战.
- 对事故可能性的定量分析对于有效的安全管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发用于建筑设备的定量事故预测模型.
- 分析利用率,分包商类型和成本对事故发生概率的影响.
- 为加强安全管理和投资决策提供一个工具.
主要方法:
- 数据收集和建筑设备使用的分类.
- 计算每小时运营成本 (HOC) 和整体建设成本.
- 在回归分析中应用数据增强技术 (多变量正常和波桑分布).
主要成果:
- 对于大多数设备类型,回归分析给出了高的R平方值 (>0.6).
- 垃圾车的死亡率是历史上最高的.
- 预测模型显示,挖掘机预计死亡人数最高.
结论:
- 拟议的模型有效地根据运营和建设成本对风险组进行分类.
- 该模型为安全管理中的现场应用提供了实际框架.
- 这项研究支持了建筑设备安全法规和投资策略的制定.
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