通过季节性时间序列模型评估环境和流行病对死亡率的影响
João Simões1, Alexandra Bernardo1, Luísa Lima Gonçalves1
1Egas Moniz School of Health and Science, Campus Universitário, Quinta da Granja, Monte de Caparica, 2829-511 Caparica, Portugal; Egas Moniz Center for Interdisciplinary Research (CiiEM), Egas Moniz School of Health & Science, Caparica, Almada, Portugal.
The Science of the total environment
|December 23, 2025
概括
季节性空气污染和温度显著影响死亡率,冬季的二氧化和PM10峰值与死亡人数的增加有关. COVID-19破坏了这些模式,突出了对适应性公共卫生策略的需求.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
背景情况:
- 季节性死亡模式,特别是冬季高峰,与空气污染和低温有关.
- 像COVID-19流行病这样的全球事件使环境健康风险的理解变得复杂.
- 基于证据的政策需要清楚理解环境因素与死亡率之间的相互作用.
研究的目的:
- 在葡萄牙 (2010-2022) 分析空气污染,气候变量和完全自然原因死亡率之间的季节性关联.
- 研究特定污染物 (PM10,NO2) 和温度对死亡率的滞后影响.
- 评估COVID-19死亡率对典型环境死亡率模式的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用了带有预测变量的季节性自回归集成移动平均模型 (SARIMAX).
- 从2010年到2022年分析了每月的死亡率数据和空气污染物度 (NO2,PM10,SOMO35).
- 与COVID-19死亡数据相比的模型和没有的模型,以辨别环境影响.
主要成果:
- 葡萄牙的冬季死亡率比年平均水平高19%,与NO2 (+24%) 和PM10 (+12%) 的峰值相吻合.
- PM10显示出四个月的滞后效应,NO2显示出即时效应,温度显示出非线性,振荡性对死亡率的影响.
- COVID-19死亡率掩盖或破坏了典型的季节性环境协会的可检测性.
结论:
- 需要更严格的空气质量标准,特别是在寒冷的月份.
- 公共卫生战略必须考虑到累积和滞后的环境影响.
- 脆弱人群可能面临环境压力因素带来的高风险,需要有针对性的干预措施.
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